According to the concepts of deterrence, which aspect is important for effectiveness?

The effectiveness of deterrence in criminology hinges significantly on the likelihood of being caught. While the severity of punishment can play a role, it is generally recognized that the chances of apprehension can be a stronger motivator for individuals to refrain from committing crimes. When individuals perceive a high likelihood of being caught, they are more likely to weigh the risks and consequences of their actions.

This understanding aligns with the principles established by deterrence theory, which posits that for punishment to be effective as a deterrent, it must not only be severe but also certain. The certainty of punishment, or the probability of being caught and facing that punishment, is critical in shaping individuals' decisions to engage in criminal behavior.

Moreover, the public perception of crime can influence behavior, but it often works in conjunction with the perceived likelihood of consequences. Similarly, personal circumstances of the offender can affect motivations and decisions but do not directly correlate with the foundational principles of deterrence.

Ultimately, while severity is relevant, the critical factor that enhances deterrence is the perceived probability of apprehension and punishment, making the aspect of likelihood paramount in the effectiveness of deterrent measures.