What percentage likelihood is there for a second identical twin to become a criminal if the first twin has committed a crime?

The likelihood of a second identical twin becoming a criminal if the first twin has committed a crime is based on studies exploring the genetics and environment's influence on criminal behavior. Research suggests that identical twins share a significant amount of genetic material, and thus, if one twin engages in criminal behavior, there is an increased probability for the other twin to do the same due to their shared genetic and environmental factors.

The estimate of 30% reflects findings that indicate a notable but not overwhelming correlation. This percentage encapsulates the idea that while genetics play a significant role in influencing criminal tendencies, environmental factors and individual circumstances also contribute to one's likelihood of engaging in criminal behavior. Therefore, while the risk is higher than in the general population, it is still not absolute, which explains why this percentage is chosen over higher figures.

In contrast, higher figures such as 50%, 70%, or even 10% may not accurately reflect the complex interplay of genetics, environment, and individual choice, leading to misleading conclusions about the determinism of criminal behavior based solely on familial ties.